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Inference after checking the prior & sampling model

1 September 2015 Leave a comment

D. R. Bickel, “Inference after checking multiple Bayesian models for data conflict and applications to mitigating the influence of rejected priors,” International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 66, 53–72 (2015). Simple explanation | Published version2014 preprint | Slides

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The proposed procedure combines Bayesian model checking with robust Bayes acts to guide inference whether or not the model is found to be inadequate:

  1. The first stage of the procedure checks each model within a large class of models to determine which models are in conflict with the data and which are adequate for purposes of data analysis.
  2. The second stage of the procedure applies distribution combination or decision rules developed for imprecise probability.

This proposed procedure is illustrated by the application of a class of hierarchical models to a simple data set.

The link Simple explanation was added on 6 June 2017.

Maximum entropy over a set of posteriors

10 August 2015 Leave a comment

D. R. Bickel, “Blending Bayesian and frequentist methods according to the precision of prior information with applications to hypothesis testing,” Statistical Methods & Applications 24, 523-546 (2015). Published article2012 preprint | 2011 preprint | Slides | Simple explanation

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This framework of statistical inference facilitates the development of new methodology to bridge the gap between the frequentist and Bayesian theories. As an example, a simple and practical method for combining p-values with a set of possible posterior probabilities is provided.

In this general approach, Bayesian inference is used when the prior distribution is known, frequentist inference is used when nothing is known about the prior, and both types of inference are blended according to game theory when the prior is known to be a member of some set. (The robust Bayes framework represents knowledge about a prior in terms of a set of possible priors.) If the benchmark posterior that corresponds to frequentist inference lies within the set of Bayesian posteriors derived from the set of priors, then the benchmark posterior is used for inference. Otherwise, the posterior within that set that minimizes the cross entropy to the benchmark posterior is used for inference.

Erratum: “Simple estimators of false discovery rates given as few as one or two p-values without strong parametric assumptions”

31 March 2015 Leave a comment

Coherent fiducial distributions

20 August 2013 Leave a comment

D. R. Bickel and M. Padilla, “A prior-free framework of coherent inference and its derivation of simple shrinkage estimators,” Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 145, 204–221 (2014). 2012 version

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Small dimensional empirical Bayes inference

9 May 2013 Leave a comment

D. R. Bickel, “Simple estimators of false discovery rates given as few as one or two p-values without strong parametric assumptions,” Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology 12, 529–543 (2013). 2011 version | erratum

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To address multiple comparison problems in small-to-high-dimensional biology, this paper introduces estimators of the local false discovery rate (LFDR), reports their main properties, and illustrates their use with proteomics data. The new estimators have the following advantages:

  1. proven asymptotic conservatism;
  2. simplicity of calculation without the tuning of smoothing parameters;
  3. no strong parametric assumptions;
  4. applicability to very small numbers of hypotheses as well as to very large numbers of hypotheses.

The link to the erratum was added 31 March 2015.

Profile likelihood & MDL for measuring the strength of evidence

8 April 2013 Leave a comment

Estimates of the local FDR

13 February 2013 Leave a comment

Z. Yang, Z. Li, and D. R. Bickel, “Empirical Bayes estimation of posterior probabilities of enrichment: A comparative study of five estimators of the local false discovery rate,” BMC Bioinformatics 14, art. 87 (2013). published version |  2011 version | 2010 version

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This paper adapts novel empirical Bayes methods for the problem of detecting enrichment in the form of differential representation of genes associated with a biological category with respect to a list of genes identified as differentially expressed. Read more…